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Over/under betting strategy for the nfl
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In this guide, we'll drill deeper into totals betting and how to better utilize it into your wagering repertoire.
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LAZIO AC MILAN BETTING PREVIEW NFL
Suppose the final score exceeds the projected total. If the oddsmakers are accurate in their projected total, the Over and the Under should draw roughly equal money. In that case, the game is graded as a push, and original wagers are returned. If one team is among the top passing teams in the NFL and the other has a soft secondary, then you know there's a good chance that offense will score a lot.
But if an offense depends on its running game and the opponent is among the stingiest run-stop units in the league, the yards won't come easy, and points could be limited. Injuries Injuries are part of the physical style of football, and sometimes impact players can get sidelined, leaving oddsmakers to adjust to those missing talents.
That said, cluster injuries at a specific position or unit can play a huge factor in the outcome, such as multiple injuries to an offensive line or a starting cornerback getting sidelined. In the single-games department, this typically refers to the final score.
A bet on the over says the two teams will combine for 37 points or more by the end of the game. Placing money on the under dictates both squads combine for 36 points or fewer by the final whistle. These wagers typically refer to a given event tied to a player or team over the course of a single game or season. The list can go on and on and on.
The important thing to remember: You are betting on the primary subject of the wager hitting the provided number the over or missing it altogether the under. Other sports, such as Basketball and Hockey, will see more attention paid to win-total wagers.
But the NFL's regular season only spans 16 games, which allows for limited opportunities and returns on investments when trying to place bets during the middle of the schedule. That leaves single-game scores as the primary profit-driver. And to consistently win your bets in this category, it's paramount to understand the play styles of the two participating teams.
High-octane offenses are generally great over bets. Think along the lines of any NFL team that ranks in the top 10 of points scored per game. On the flip side, great defensive teams make for quality under bets.
Think once again along the lines of a defense that places 10th or better in points allowed per game. Here's where things get tricky, though: You have to account for the other side of the ball, in addition to the opponent. A great offensive team could also be a great defensive team. Those two elite virtues sort of neutralize one another, since whatever points this squad puts up on the offensive end presumably won't be replicated by their opponent.
Seek out lopsided opportunities instead. By this we mean,betting the over on a game that features an elite offensive unit facing off against a crummy defense or investing in the under when a great defense collides with a poor offense. Another thing to consider: Run-heavy teams that often prioritize trying to slow the pace of play. This makes it harder even for great offenses to put a ton of points on the board. Offenses built around the ground attack will be profitable under bets if they're going toe to toe with a stingy defense.
This works the same way when accounting for strong passing machines. Offenses that rely heavily on quarterbacks airing it out are more likely to put up touchdowns and generate extra possession series by ramping up the speed of play. They are, as a result, solid over bets when playing versus a below-average defense. Getting that extra time to judge the style of play for both teams, the speed at which the game is being played and the performances of both offenses and defenses will help you make the most informed decision possible.
It's true that the returns on these live wagers can sometimes be less than stellar. That's why you should try coming to a decision by the end of the first quarter or no later than the second half. Otherwise, if you're betting after that, it's best to stick with the moneyline or spread.
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