Автор: Arazahn
Sports betting principles
There have been successful strategies, statistical models and other things bettors have used to get an edge, but in many cases, sportsbooks have since adjusted to take them into account. There is a constant battle between professional bettors looking for advantages and sportsbooks figuring out what the edge is and adapting.
Advertisement There are some relatively simple principles to follow when looking for good bets with that caveat out of the way. Think of a bet as a candy bar. The convenience store a block away sells it for 89 cents. The grocery store across the street sells it for 79 cents. Well, the same concept applies to sports bets from different sportsbooks.
The next step is to look at different sportsbooks to find the best odds. This should be as obvious as the candy bar scenario. If you have access to all three sportsbooks, you will place your bet at Sportsbook B. Still, there is usually some variety. Advertisement The Twins example is straightforward because only the odds can change on a moneyline bet.
When dealing with spreads or totals, the line can also vary. Sportsbook A is clearly giving better odds than Sportsbook B. However, the spread is the same, and the odds are better. Sportsbook C is also clearly better than Sportsbook B. Sportsbook C and Sportsbook A offer different spreads.
You get the extra half point at C, but A gives better odds. But, again, this is a matter of how valuable you think that half-point is. A half-point is almost always more valuable. Overall, shopping lines does little to guarantee winning bets but is a useful way to cut into the house advantage. Betting trends One common strategy employed by bettors is to look at trends.
It can also work in less obvious ways like baseball teams that play better or worse in day games. Hypothetically, the Athletics might be struggling in day games. This is trouble. Some trends can be valuable, though. Look at the White Sox. They went against left-handed starting pitchers. If you caught wind of that early in the season, you could have made some money on it.
The White Sox had a lineup that featured many right-handed hitters with some key switch hitters, and they hit left-handed pitching hard. As the trend continued and gained notoriety, the White Sox would be favored in almost any game where they faced a left-handed starter, so the value was decreased. As players shook off the quarantine rust, first half unders went through the play-in games and the first round.
He would get exactly zero. This is the perfect opportunity to hedge. By betting opposite to the original wager, he can lock in a profit. With parlays one loss is all it takes to lose the entire parlay. Betting the Middle This process, also known as middling, is when a punter makes an early point spread bet only to see the line move later. By exploiting the line change you can place an opposite bet to your first wager and sometimes win them both.
Keep reading for an example to make it really clear. This can happen for a few different reasons including too much action being placed on the underdog by the betting public or by things like injuries or other player factors. If the favorite wins by 8 or 9 points exactly, you win both your bets. The downside is that you will take a small loss when this happens due to the commission vig charged by the sportsbook. Read our full guide to betting the middle for more information.
Sportsbooks also want to attract roughly equal action on both sides of a bet to protect themselves from a potentially massive loss. Being able to identify cases when the public is pushing a line gives smart bettors an edge because the line is moving relative to the money coming in rather than the likely final score of the game.
As such, you can bet in the opposite direction and reap the benefit of extra points in your favor on the point spread or extra pennies on the dollar with the moneyline. To fade the public you need to pay close attention to line movements. There are also free resources online that can tell you the distribution of action on specific bets. This is because those leagues use a playoff format when it comes to home and away games. The higher seeded team plays at home for the first two games, as well as the 5th and 7th, if necessary.
The zig zag theory works on two main concepts. First, home teams have a real advantage. Second, when a team is coming off a loss they generally play harder and have a statistically better chance of winning. The zig zag theory works best when a team is at home AND coming off a loss.
In the NHL the historical percentages are different and even when the home team takes game 1, the lower seed comes back to win game 2 on the road one-third of the time. In these moments, with the public betting heavily on the home team to replicate their game 1 success, look to find great value on the road squad.
If the leading team has won by close margins the public may still overvalue them by emphasizing the series lead rather than a rational analysis of how the games actually played out. Of course, if they really worked then everyone would be rich and casinos and sportsbooks would be bankrupt. Martingale System — In this system the bettor simply doubles the bet amount after any losing bet in an effort to recoup their money plus a small profit.
An obvious problem with this is that any bad losing streak will require a huge amount of money just to get back to even. The Negative Progression System a. Compared to the Martingale system which only requires your last bet to win, this system needs your overall winning percentage to out-number your losses. The Labouchere system — a.
The Cancellation System — This system is also called the split Martingale system. First come up with a base betting unit. Then write down a common Labouchere sequence like To choose your bet amount, take the first and last numbers from the sequence. If you lose a bet, add the number of units you bet to the end of the sequence. When you win, cross out the first and last numbers in the sequence. Continue until all numbers in the sequence have been crossed out.
The truth is, none of these systems can guarantee a win, even if they promise to do just that. Using Sports Databases and Stats Sites to Discover Trends One of the most important things both savvy punters and oddsmakers utilize is data and trend analysis software. These days there are several online options that offer these services for free or for a low fee. It takes a bit of work to learn to use them at first but once you learn how to use these tools they can be an absolute game-changer for your results.
Not only can you figure out how the most common trends are calculated and used, but you can also explore your own trend ideas and potentially find edges that have eluded the sportsbooks and other bettors. You never know what you might find. Perhaps NHL road underdogs, after long homestands, who start their back up goalie in the first game of a back-to-back are much more likely to cover the puckline.
It may seem random, but with data analysis tools you can find real trends that can help guide your bets. For example, over the past 13 seasons the underdog has covered the spread It measures how teams perform against the point spread, not just against their opponents. Check out our best NFL picks against the spread to get an advantage over the sportsbooks.
That is an incredible stat to ponder. It makes it seem that no matter what strategy you employ, your point spread bet is a coin toss. That extra three percent represents a massive difference for your bottom line so look for those opportunities.
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